Development Economics and Policy
Coronacrise 2020: que crise?
Abstract:
The forecasts already published by national and international institutions on the impact of Covid-19 on economies confirm what had already been anticipated: deep falls in product and employment, fuelled by the joint reduction in consumption, investment and international trade, with consequent effects on deficits and public debt. Coronacrise 2020: que crise? discusses the economic crisis triggered by Covid-19, namely in its particularities and in the common elements with the economic crisis that preceded it. In particular, the elements of connection with the 2008-2009 crisis are discussed, with emphasis on the comparison between the responses that were given at that time and the responses that are currently being given, seeking to highlight the differences between the more active intervention of the European Central Bank and the hesitant and contradictory intervention of national and European institutions with responsibility for fiscal policy. We highlight the need for an economic recovery plan, with a European dimension and integrating national specificities, as well as the need for a change in attitude regarding the role of economic policy, that should favor a long-term expansionist perspective instead of the contractionary perspective which has conditioned European macroeconomic management in recent years.
Quotation:
Mendonça, A. (2020). “Coronacrise 2020: que crise?”. Lusíada. Economia & Empresa, nº 28 (2020), pp. 11-41. https://doi.org/10.34628/gp7b-es79
Europe at the crossroads of the COVID-19 crisis: integrated macroeconomic policy solutions for an asymmetric area
Abstract:
The economic crisis triggered by the COVID–19 pandemic once again raises doubts about the eurozone’s ability to deal with joint economic problems given its dissimilar dynamics and asymmetries. Europe at the crossroads of the COVID-19 crisis: integrated macroeconomic policy solutions for an asymmetric area contributes to a paradigm shift in the governance of the euro area towards a more comprehensive and integrated approach. Two dimensions of this paradigm are considered. First, the need for a change in the economic policy concerning the recovery, from a supply-push to a demand-pull orientation, supported on a fiscal and monetary policy mix, integrated within a comprehensive macroeconomic approach. Second, we examine the need for a shift in external relations towards a more global integration-oriented policy, with the euro area positioning itself as an alternative to the current polarization between the United States and China. Our conclusions point to: (i) giving priority to growth and employment; (ii) promoting long-term economic sustainability based on integrated macroeconomic policies, the reduction of income concentration, and the reconstitution of strong middle classes; (iii) reorientating international relations into a perspective of cooperation; (iv) reinforcing regulation and global governance; and (v) eliminating exceptional situations and ways to evade economic controls.
Quotation:
“Mendonça, A. and Vale, S. (forthcoming). “Europe at the crossroads of the COVID-19 crisis: integrated macroeconomic policy solutions for an asymmetric area”, (co-autoria com Vale, S.), in New challenges for Eurozone Governance: Are there joint solutions for common threats? (Edit. José Caetano, Isabel Vieira, and António Caleiro), London: Springer. ISBN-10:3030623718″
A Previdência Social
Abstract:
The 60’s corresponded to an unequivocal progress in the institutional evolution, material and personal coverage of the Social Welfare system, in which Law 2115, which instituted the 1962 Social Welfare Reform – which was in force as the Basic Law until 1984 – is absolutely central. Statistical data corroborate this statement, and even demonstrate the growth of social spending and the growing role of the State, also as a financer and not with a mere supplementary intervention. A Previdência Social analyses the evolution of Social Welfare in the 60’s, underlining the logic of continuity between Salazar’s and Marcelo Caetano’s government. Based on the Social Welfare Reform, initiated in 1962, progress in terms of personal and material coverage was unequivocal, with the inevitable consequence of a strong growth of social expenditure throughout the decade. To this end, the universalization of the system contributed a lot, with the widening of Welfare to rural areas, already under Marcelo Caetano, which had a significant impact on the system, but also on Portuguese society. The changes in the domain of social policy fulfilled a legitimizing function of the New State in its desired evolution towards a Social State and marked the beginning of convergence with the European Welfare States. We would like to thank Professors João Freire and Álvaro Garrido for reading the initial text of this article and for their relevant contributions to its final version.
Quotation:
“Rodrigues, Cristina & Carolo, Daniel (2020). “A Previdência Social”. In Brito, José Maria Brandão de Brito & Santos, Paula Borges (Coords.) Os Anos Sessenta em Portugal. Duas governações, diferentes políticas públicas. Porto: Afrontamento”
Manual de Introdução à Construção de Indicadores de Monitorização
Abstract:
Manual de Introdução a construção de indicadores de monitorização is a working and training tool for technicians from public and private, national or international institutions working in the area of development and public policies. Its objective is to enable technical experts to develop capacities to think about indicators that are appropriate for projects and policies in their area of intervention. The technical level is introductory to the subject and does not indicators on business management, for example, finance or macroeconomics, and no previous knowledge of mathematics or statistics is required beyond the basics and common sense. It contains chapters with a theoretical part and a practical part, through examples applicable to Guinea-Bissau, on simple and composite, quantitative and qualitative and composite, quantitative and qualitative indicators, short and long term sampling and descriptive statistics. Since this version is prepared for Guinea-Bissau, the last chapter seeks to reflect on the lessons from the lessons learned from the Manual on the construction of indicators which are included in the Political and Social Stability Pact (Pact), signed in 2018, as an example of a multidisciplinary area with fundamental interest for the country.
Quotation:
Sangreman, Carlos (2021). Manual de Introdução a construção de indicadores de monitorização, PNUD/UNIOGBIS, Delegação da Guiné-Bissau, 2020. Liga Guineense dos Direitos Humanos (LGDH) e Tiniguena.
Covid-19 and Human Rights in a fragile state : Guinea-Bissau
Abstract:
COVID-19 and Human Rights in a Fragile State: Guinea-Bissau aims to study the situation of Human Rights during the Covid-19 pandemic in Guinea-Bissau, between January 2020 and January 2022. The research organized an inquiry to families, another to companies and another to market/street sellers about the effects of the pandemic and the measures enacted by the Government and Presidency to contain it. A public hearing was also organized, with various entities from the High Commissioner to trade unions, journalists, students, women associations, and the Public Order Police, for information on how each institution saw its situation and action in this period. The conclusions of the analysis of all these qualitative and quantitative data allow us to affirm a) the social actors agreed with the main measures the authorities took to contain the disease; b) the must referred complaint was the lack of any support from the authorities to households, companies and sellers: c) the fragility of Guinea-Bissau has such a social weight that a disease that killed fewer people than malaria, diarrhea, or tuberculosis, did not overcome the problems of human rights stemming from poverty, institutional fragility, and low incomes in general.
Quotation:
Sangreman, C., Faria, R. T., & Turé, B. (2022). COVID-19 and Human Rights in a Fragile State: Guinea-Bissau. In P. Andrade, & M. Martins (Ed.), Handbook of Research on Urban Tourism, Viral Society, and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic (pp. 341-360). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-3369-0.ch018
The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Bank Stress Tests on Stock Markets
Abstract:
In The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Banks Stress Tests on Stock Markets we tested whether the 2010, 2011 and 2014 European Union bank stress tests produced useful and real information to the market. Using an augmented capital asset pricing model, we analyzed the impact of the information disclosures on each stress test (announcement, methodology and results events) on the stock market returns and risk of banks. Our approach allows an integrated analysis, as a sample of 41 banks that participated in all three stress tests was used. The most significant event was the methodology disclosure, in terms of its impact on risk and returns. In contrast, the results events did not have much impact in the stock market when considering the entire sample of banks. On the other hand, after dividing the sample of banks into two groups (those that passed the 2014 European Union stress test vs. those that failed), we observed a significant reaction of the stock markets in both groups. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that stress tests provide real and valuable information to the markets about the banking system. A significant part of that information is conveyed by announcement and methodology events
Quotation:
“Borges, M. R., Mendes, J. Z. and Pereira, A. (2019). “The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Banks Stress Tests on Stock Markets”. International Advances in Economic Research, 25, 429-444. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-019-09760-5“
Cultural and creative entrepreneurs in financial crises: Sailing against the tide?
Abstract:
Cultural and creative entrepreneurs in financial crises: Sailing against the tide? Scientific Annals of Economics and Business focuses on a range of idiosyncrasies of cultural and creative entrepreneurs (CCEs) to study the resilience of CCEs in times of crisis (economic, financial and debt crisis). The demographics of CC firms (born and dead), trends and performance and the association between subsidies received and firm survival are analysed. It mainly analyses micro firms in a country where CCEs are particularly financially challenged, namely Portugal. It exploits the unique availability of micro accounting data at the private firm level over an 8-year period (2004-2011), which allows to include the effects of the last financial crisis, and to understand the evolution of the economic success criterion. The results obtained on the impact of subsidies on survival are interesting in both the CCE and the political perspectives, suggesting a positive impact of subsidies in periods of recession, and a negative impact of subsidies in periods of economic growth. Furthermore, CCE firms were found to be more dynamic than other firms in other sectors.
Quotation:
Fontainha, E., & Lazzaro, E. (2019). Cultural and creative entrepreneurs in financial crises: Sailing against the tide?. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(Special issue – dedicated to the VIII Wo), 73–89. https://doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2019-0022
Perspective piece on “Transfers in an Aging European Union” by Fanny A. Kluge, Joshua R. Goldstein and Tobias C. Vogt
Abstract:
The growth in the longevity of Europe’s population is a consequence of developments in various fields, including medicine, nutrition and welfare policies, and reflects overall progress in well-being, human development and quality of life. However, as the continued improvement in life expectancy has been accompanied by a decline in fertility rates, which migration is not sufficient to compensate for, it has resulted in a growing ageing population, which raises critical societal challenges. Several articles presented in this journal explore the short and long-term effects of population ageing in the EU and in each of its member countries. The article written by Fanny Kluge, Joshua Goldstein and Tobias Vogt, Transfers in an ageing European Union, (hereafter “KGV”) contributes to understanding the effects of population ageing on the fiscal budgets of EU-28 countries and “its implications for potential transfer flows between EU countries”. The results of “KGV” open several avenues for further research. Elsa Fontainha comments on the work of Fanny A. Kluge, Joshua R. Goldstein and Tobias C. Vogt on population transfers in the European Union.
Quotation:
Fontainha, E. (2019). Perspective piece on “Transfers in an Ageing European Union” by Fanny A. Kluge, Joshua R. Goldstein and Tobias C. Vogt. Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 13, 55-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.10.006
A Caminho de uma Recaída da Economia Mundial? Ainda Algumas Notas sobre a Natureza da Crise Económica e Financeira de 2008-2009 e os seus Impactos na Economia Europeia
Abstract:
Based on the analysis of the latest data on the evolution of the world economy, the reasons that may underlie the persistence of the difficulties in recovering, in a sustained manner, the rates of growth, particularly in the euro zone, more than a decade after the outbreak of the crisis of 2008-2009, are discussed. The nature of this global economic crisis is discussed in A caminho de uma recaída da economia mundial? : Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza mundial? : Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza da crise económica e financeira de 2008-2009 e os seus impactos na economia europeia, its impacts at the European regional level, the emergence of what has been called an identity crisis of the European integration project, the inefficiency of the euro system as an adjustment mechanism, internal and external, and the role of unconventional monetary policy. The conclusion is that Europe needs to undertake a profound redefinition of its integration project, including the redesign of the euro system in light of the recent experience of unconventional monetary policy. In this process, it is considered that there is an important place for Portugal, as an Atlantic European country, whose identity was formed and consolidated in the process of constitution of the global economy.
Quotation:
Mendonça, António .2019. A caminho de uma recaída da economia mundial?: Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza mundial?: Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza da crise económica e financeira de 2008-2009 e os seus impactos na economia europeia”, Lusíada – Economia & Empresa, nº 26, p. 31-66
Guiné-Bissau – Notas sobre o presente e o futuro
Abstract:
The idea of publishing the book Notas sobre o presente e o futuro of Guinea-Bissau arose from the need to get to know the country better and to think about its recent past, which will inevitably contribute to its near future. The aim was to collect existing texts that were revised and updated and to ask some authors to reflect on themes based on the motto “Guinea-Bissau, notes on the present and the future”. These texts are published at a special moment in the country. After a period of a government appointed by the military that took power in 2012, elections were held in 2014 and a round table was held in Brussels where the country received a great deal of encouragement from its international partners – institutions and countries – in support of a government and a president that everyone had hoped would provide a more stable and successful evolution such as there had not been until then. But these expectations came up against a conflict between sovereign bodies, which frustrated this support and threw the country into a four-year period of instability that began to end with the legislative elections on 10 March 2019 but is only expected to return to normal institutional functioning with the presidential elections in November of the same year.
Quotation:
Sangreman, Carlos, Fátima Proença, Luís Vaz Martins, Mamadu Alfa Djau, Pedro Rosa Mendes e Rui Jorge Semedo Guiné-Bissau – Notas sobre o presente e o futuro, com, ISBN 978-989-20-9932-3, CESA-ISEG/ULisboa, 2019, Lisboa.
