Development Economics and Policy
Working Paper 182/2021: PAIGC a Face do Monopartidarismo na Guiné-Bissau (1974 a 1990)
Abstract:
The African Party for Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) officially took control of political power in Guinea-Bissau in 1974, and for sixteen years has starred in the political scene with a single-party regime – a military dictatorship–with repressive practices as a method to control the opposition, intimidate and maintain power. Our purpose in PAIGC a face do monopartidarismo na Guiné-Bissau (1974 a 1990) is to verify why the party that was for a long time at the forefront of the country, acting as the only political force that controlled the state apparatus, had difficulty executing its main government proposals. For this we seek the following questions: What influence did colonization have on the formation of the PAIGC? Why did the PAIGC face difficulties and were forced to lose its binational identity considered as one of the bases of its ideological beginning? Why in the post-coup period of 1980 could the party not prevent other successive violent conflicts? Was social and ethnic divisionism noted in the internal structures of the PAIGC? The answer may be among other factors: in the legacy left by the colonial past, in the heterogeneity of the national social structure and in the contradictions resulting from the struggle for power within the PAIGC itself. Although, despite the difficulties that are observable, it cannot be refuted its importance as an important player in the construction of national political history.
Quotation:
Semedo, Rui Jorge (2021). “PAIGC a face do monopartidarismo na Guiné-Bissau (1974 a 1990)”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 182/2021.
Working Paper 181/2021: A Vulnerabilidade à Pobreza das Mulheres Responsáveis por Famílias Monoparentais no Brasil e o Papel das Políticas Públicas
Abstract:
The deterioration of women’s income, and their consequent vulnerability to poverty, is particularly critical in the case of women who are the head of single-parent families – being them the only provider to the household, gender inequalities in the labor market affect them more significantly. A Vulnerabilidade à Pobreza das Mulheres Responsáveis por Famílias Monoparentais no Brasil e o Papel das Políticas Públicas seeks to understand the life experiences of these women, in Brazil, as well as the role of the State in alleviating their economic and social difficulties, where the effect of the Bolsa Família Programme will be studied in particular. The analysis of the Brazilian reality is enhanced by the presentation of relevant official statistics, complemented by a qualitative methodological approach based on semi-structured interviews conducted with women in this situation. It is concluded that their life experiences are affected by several hardships that are still relatively under-researched, but also by positive aspects related to their condition as single parents, above all in terms of their autonomy and perception of greater emancipation, as well as living in a safe and emotionaly stable environment.
Quotation:
Araújo, Clareana Lopes de e Sara Falcão Casaca (2021). “A vulnerabilidade à pobreza das mulheres responsáveis por famílias monoparentais no Brasil e o papel das políticas públicas”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 181/2021.
Working Paper 179/2020: Monetary Transitions in Cabo Verde: From the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal
Abstract:
Monetary Transitions in Cabo Verde: From the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal studies how, during the colonial period and within the framework of the monetary system of the Portuguese colonies, Cape Verde lived in a situation of relative monetary and exchange rate stability. After independence in 1975, the country underwent two monetary transitions: the first, immediately after independence and with the abandonment of parity with the Portuguese escudo; and the second, from 1998 onwards, following an exchange rate cooperation agreement with Portugal. During both transitions, the country was able to rebuild monetary and exchange rate stability, depending on how institutional and external stability factors were used in each of them. However, the second transition significantly affected the evolution of international trade and investment in Cape Verde, whose expansion resulted in strong growth in the economy and exports. This article analyses not only the conditions of monetary and exchange rate stability in the two transitions, but also the nature of the changes that occurred with the second transition. These changes translated into a trend of structural transformation and consolidation of the market economy in Cape Verde, paving the way for the good economic performance of recent decades.
Quotation:
Estêvão, João (2020). “Monetary transitions in Cabo Verde : from the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 179/2020.
Working Paper 173/2018: Women in Politics: Portugal as a case study
Abstract:
Democracy is about the power of the people. In order to sustain, implies (at least) representativeness of its major groups. When majority rules minorities, lobbies complain when not happy and some of their demands are met; but the system doesn’t turn totally in their favor if it goes against the interests of a larger assembly. When minority rules the majority, problems arise (populism against elite, for instance); and sooner or later there’s a significant shift in society. Quantity gives power. Numbers do count in Democracy. Women are the majority of the population. It was not always so, but nowadays it’s an unquestionable fact. For cultural, institutional or socioeconomic reasons they were submissive for centuries to a system that did not recognize their public activity. They were not involved in decision making and rebel against that. At first, their demands were not met. But waves are changing. As long as democracy prevails and women’s numbers and percentages won’t drop, they’ll probably continue to raise awareness to their cause, increasing their power and influence in society. The evolution of women’s empowerment is the focus of Women in Politics: Portugal as a case study, that tries to analyze the main characteristics, causes and effects of this process, based on theory and world references or statistics. Portugal was chosen as a case study for not being much researched or not sufficiently so far.
Quotation:
Galito, Maria Sousa (2018). “Women in politics : Portugal as a case study”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 173/2018.
Working Paper 172/2018: Growth and Debt in Angola at Provincial Level
Abstract:
The relationship between growth and debt has attracted some research in past,(Eberhardt and Presbitero, 2015, Panizza and Presbitero, 2014, Kourtellos et al., 2013; Checherita-Westphal and Rother, 2012). This hypothesis has been tested for development countries and evidence from Africa countries restricted (Mistry, 1991; Ussain and Gunter, 2005; Mohamed, 2013; Owusu-Nantwi and Erickson, 2016). Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) find that growth rates fall in advanced and emerging market economies when the public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 90 percent and that high debt levels are correlated with higher inflation only in emerging markets. The Weak Government Hypothesis states that government fragmentation leads to higher public deficits and debt. This relation can be explained by government inaction, common pool problems or the strategic use of debt that arise in coalition governments (Ashworth, Geys and Heyndels, 2005). Therefore, this paper analyzes the relationship between debt and growth in Angola provinces from 2004-2015, using a spatial model. The spatial model is adequate in the present context as the focus are at regional level (Zhao, Tong and Qiao, 2002; chakravorty, 2003; Haddad, 2008; Barros, Faria and Araujo Jr., 2014) The SAC- Spatial autocorrelation model is adequate when the spatial autocorrelation is intense as it is in Angola context. The motivation for Growth and debt in Angola at provincial level is the following, first, growth at regional level is usually lower than at national level, revealing heterogeneity among Angola provinces that justifies the investigation between growth and debt. Second, regional public expenditure is taken into account since it is a component of the growth and debt. Third, regional public debt is not published in Angola and the access to it needs a ministry of finance accordance. This restricted access signifies that it is a political issue and therefore it may hide some political issues. Therefore, the use of it in and growth debt paper is curious. Additional, the Angola regional provinces are managed by MPLA- Movimento popular de Libertação de Angola members, the incumbent government, signifying that there is a centrality of power that increases the regional spatial correlation. This paper analyses GDP growth and public debt at the provincial level in Angola from 2004-2015, using a spatial model. First a SAC -Spatial autocorrelation model panel is estimated. Later, a robust test is adopted estimating the Hans-Philips linear spatial dynamic model. Finally, a spatial 3sls model is estimated taking into account the possibility endogeneity of regional spatial autocorrelation. The three models give similar results revealing that in Angola public expenditure increase GDP growth but debt decrease it.
Quotation:
Reis, César Fernando e Jelson Serafim (2018). “Growth and debt in Angola at provincial level”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG –Documentos de Trabalho nº 172/2018.
Working Paper 171/2018: Promoting Private Sector for Development: The rise of blended finance in EU aid architecture
Abstract:
Since 2007, the EU has been pushing for blended finance to mobilise private sector for development. This is a novel and controversial financial policy coinciding with the growing debate on “beyond aid” and the emergence of new financial tools and actors that are actively engaged with the global development agenda. Since the 1960s, grants and concessional loans (or more simply, aid) have been the dominant type of development finance provided by the EU, together with debt relief and the costs of technical assistance. But aid is no longer the main source of development finance for most developing countries, now replaced by private financial flows: foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances and philanthropy. Business-led economic growth is at the core of the 2030 global development agenda seen as the primary driver of investments, jobs creation and production of goods and services. In consequence, the EU is moving to combine aid with other public and private resources (blended finance) to catalyse and leverage additional funds from the private sector. Promoting private sector for development: the rise of blended finance in EU aid architecture will critically analyse the emergence and evolution of EU blended finance to support the private sector to deliver the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) by 2030 and the potential implications for EU development cooperation.
Quotation:
Mah, Luís (2018). “Promoting private sector for development : the rise of blended finance in EU aid architecture”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA /CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 171/2018.
Working Paper 170/2018: The Brazilian Economy in an Accommodative Perspective: An essay on the deepening of dependency
Abstract:
This article, eminently analytical, refers to the brazilian economy in an accommodative perspective. This refers to the internal mechanism of interactionadaptive to the instigations of the dynamics of the international division of labor and its modus operandi. It emerges that the central problem of the Brazilian economy is to maintain a pattern of reproduction of material life that guarantees the non-rupture of the fabric on which the conditions of accumulation have settled. This document aims to propose a way of analyzing the Brazilian economy and its relationship with the recent dynamic of the global economy. In order to do so, one takes into account its dependence trajectory with this dynamics and proposes to analyze it in a perspective of non-structural alteration of the components that support it and, as a hypothesis, of the way these components interact. The components, for the purposes of this essay, are: exports and imports of goods (here called the Decisive Activity), reproduction of the labor force (here considered, as a proxy, for the joint analysis of the unemployment rate and average real income in minimum wages) and the investment rate (as a percentage of GDP).
Quotation:
Moreira, Marcelo José (2018). “The Brazilian Economy in an Accommodative Perspective: An essay on the deepening of dependency”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA /CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 170/2018.
Working Paper 165/2018: Portugal: crisis and restructuring
Abstract:
Portugal is a southwestern country with a strategic triangle including two archipelagos and a territorial slice of the Iberian Peninsula. It’s a State-member of the European Union (EU) since 1986. After 2008 faced financial and economic restrain and asked for financial external help from Troika (IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank) between 2011/14. Taking that in mind, Portugal: crisis and restructuring contextualizes Portugal’s present situation and its trends for the last ten or less years. The first chapter analysis main macroeconomic indicators of Portugal, including the GDP, imports and exports specific performance, consumer price index, net lending/ borrowing by institutional sector, and sovereign ratings from the biggest international agencies. The second chapter evaluates some of the country’s inner fragilities, such as lack of industrialization and unbalanced GVA and Employment between major sectors (agriculture, services and industry), Risk of Poverty, Unemployment Rates and major demographic trends. The third chapter focus on external dependence; studies indicators in percentage of the GDP, like the Liquid External Debt, Emigrants’ Remittances, Public Transferences from and for the EU, but also the Geographical Distribution of Exports and Imports of Goods by Regions and by countries, and of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by Countries. The fourth chapter examines the overseas AICEP network, the Global Peace Index, The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index and Portuguese indicators like the revenue and number of bed nights by country of origin. A final chapter has a summarized critical assessment about the hypothesis of the EU becoming a federation and Portugal’s part in it. The presentation proposes an approach to political economy and international relations. It begins by analyzing the main Portuguese macroeconomic indicators in the last years, taking into account internal weaknesses and the degree of external dependence. Afterwards, tries to assess national development on a globalized stage. It lists main current challenges from a geopolitical and geo-economic point of view and how difficult it is to face them. It also tests the hypothesis that Portugal is changing patterns, from crisis and loss of credibility to recovery, and some explanations are given to explain it.
Quotation:
Galito, Maria Sousa (2018). “Portugal: crisis and restructuring”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 165/2018.
Working Paper 164/2018: The Context of Conflict Resolution: International relations and the study of peace and conflict
Abstract:
The Context of Conflict Resolution: International relations and the study of peace and conflict provides a brief review of almost one century of academic research within the discipline of International Relations with a focus on the thinking about Peace and Conflict and its links to approaches in Conflict Resolution. The framework of analysis is based on the definition of science, what is studied and how it is studied, which delimits the analysis into the four debates in IR: between 1919 and the 1940s, the idealist versus realist debate; in the 1950s and 1960s, the traditionalist versus behaviourist debate; in the 1970s and 1980s, the inter-paradigm debate, and, since the 1990s, the rationalist versus reflectivist debate. This paper identifies how the classical conception of security centred on the state, the military and external threats was broadened by different approaches to include other actors (individuals, groups, societies, civilizations), other sectors (economic, political, social, environmental) and internal threats. In tandem, it maps the epistemological and sometimes ontological challenges to positivism and rationalism found in (Neo) Realism, (Neo) Liberalism and Marxism, by a set of post-positivist and reflective theories or approaches, such as the cases of Human Security, Feminism, Post-structuralism, Constructivism, Post-Colonialism, Critical Studies, and the Copenhagen School. The emergence and development of all these theories and approaches are historically contextualized alongside developments of Conflict Resolution approaches.
Quotation:
Sousa, Ricardo Real P. (2018). “The Context of Conflict Resolution: International relations and the study of peace and conflict”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG Documentos de Trabalho nº 164/2018.
Working Paper 163/2017: Identificação e Construção de Cenários Macroeconómicos para o Estudo de Impactos de Medidas de Política Económica. Uma abordagem matricial com simulação a Moçambique
Abstract:
The study of the impacts of economic policy measures involves, on the one hand, the identification of the reality on which such measures will be applied and, on the other hand, the construction of scenarios that allow their perception. This exercise is based on the activity of a country, whose complexity requires the use of instruments or work tools. Identificação e Construção de Cenários Macroeconómicos para o Estudo de Impactos de Medidas de Política Económica. Uma abordagem matricial com simulação a Moçambique, the Social Accounting Matrix, commonly known as SAM (from the abbreviation of the name in English – Social Accounting Matrix), is proposed as a working tool for the study of the activity of a country. Such activity, here designated as socio-economic, involves monetary or nominal flows measured by national accounts, as well as production (organized into factors, activities and products) and institutions (organized into households, public administrations, non-financial and financial corporations, non-profit institutions serving families and the rest of the world). With a concern for methodological detail, the potential of SAM will be explored for the reading and interpretation of the reality under study, as well as for carrying out experiments with its operation. In an approach based on SAM, we will see the possibilities of building networks, more or less complex, of connections of the flows mentioned above, from which specific structural characteristics can be highlighted and the associated multiplier effects studied. In this way, I will show that a numerical version of the SAM allows an empirical description of the origin, use, distribution and accumulation of income, while an algebraic version (or model based on the SAM) allows for a more in-depth study of the multiplier effects (or impacts) associated with changes in these flows, caused by the adoption of policy measures, for example. I will exemplify such potentialities of SAM, giving special attention to the functional and institutional distribution of income, through the construction and analysis of two scenarios involving changes in the remuneration of production factors and in the income of institutions. Such an application will allow the identification of the relevant role of production factor accounts (from SAM), as they establish the link between income generation and the corresponding distribution and use. I will also emphasize the importance of a matrix approach in the identification and construction of macroeconomic scenarios in the study of impacts of economic policy measures, highlighting the complementary details that an InputOutput Matrix (IOM) can add. An application to the case of Mozambique in 2015 will accompany the presentation. In this application we will often talk about simulation due to the unavailability of information regarding all the flows worked.
Quotation:
Santos, Susana (2017). “Identificação e construção de cenários macroeconómicos para o estudo de impactos de medidas de política económica. Uma abordagem matricial com simulação a Moçambique”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 163/2017.
