Working Papers
For submission of articles or Working Papers to CEsA, please send an email to:
comunicacao@cesa.iseg.ulisboa.pt
Working Paper 179/2020: Monetary Transitions in Cabo Verde: From the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal
Abstract:
Monetary Transitions in Cabo Verde: From the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal studies how, during the colonial period and within the framework of the monetary system of the Portuguese colonies, Cape Verde lived in a situation of relative monetary and exchange rate stability. After independence in 1975, the country underwent two monetary transitions: the first, immediately after independence and with the abandonment of parity with the Portuguese escudo; and the second, from 1998 onwards, following an exchange rate cooperation agreement with Portugal. During both transitions, the country was able to rebuild monetary and exchange rate stability, depending on how institutional and external stability factors were used in each of them. However, the second transition significantly affected the evolution of international trade and investment in Cape Verde, whose expansion resulted in strong growth in the economy and exports. This article analyses not only the conditions of monetary and exchange rate stability in the two transitions, but also the nature of the changes that occurred with the second transition. These changes translated into a trend of structural transformation and consolidation of the market economy in Cape Verde, paving the way for the good economic performance of recent decades.
Quotation:
Estêvão, João (2020). “Monetary transitions in Cabo Verde : from the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 179/2020.
Working Paper 178/2020: The Global Value Chains and the Evolution of Chinese Economic Model
Abstract:
According to the Word Bank in the first 38 years of China Economic Reform took 700 million people out poverty line in China at same time benefiting the Global South economy due to the integration of the Transnational Enterprises Global Value Chains with China. Chinese government understood the economic rational of Global Value Chains, Flying Geese Model and Foreign Direct Investment Theories and introduced policies to attract foreign capital, technology, production, and foreign buyers, placing China as the final stage of the production networks in Asia and also transforming China in the biggest buying market of many resources and energy suppliers from less developed countries in Asia, Africa and South America. But a new model of Chinese economic development even more interconnected and interdependent with the world is now on move. Even quite before the world acknowledge the protectionist mindset of the US in Trump era, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched in 2013 a very ambitious initiative under the name of “One Road One Belt the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road” to enhance a new stage of world globalization, which together with two complimentary initiatives the “International Production Cooperation” and “Third-country Market Cooperation” and in complementarity with the “Made in China 2025” and “Internet Plus” plans will lead China to develop Global Value Chains leaded by Chinese companies and integrating countries of Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America, studied in The Global Value Chains and the Evolution of Chinese Economic Model.
Quotation:
Ilhéu, Fernanda (2020). “The global value chains and the evolution of chinese economic model”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG Documentos de Trabalho nº 178/2020.
Working Paper 177/2019: Terrorismo na União Europeia
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) has suffered several violent attacks. Terrorismo na União Europeia investigates the conceptualisation of terrorism as a political phenomenon, differentiating it from other types of organised crime, in a context of regional threats, coming from the Mediterranean, jihadism and its consequences in the EU, without forgetting issues such as social exclusion related to the current migration crisis, autonomous claims within the regional bloc and the spread of populism. The EU Strategy for Combating Radicalisation and Recruitment to Terrorism is discussed. A critical analysis is made of the European Cybersecurity Strategy and the European Council’s New Strategic Agenda for 2019-2024 with regard to counter-terrorism. The idea is to confront legislative measures and to review precedents, within the framework of the Security Union and the Defence Union. The critical analysis of EU action is made on the basis of the challenges identified by the European Commission for the Community future, considering the Strategic Agenda 2019/2024, in a disruptive environment, in which the Community institutions have tried to be effective or even innovative and forerunners in terms of policy change.
Quotation:
Galito, Maria Sousa (2019). “Terrorismo na União Europeia”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/CSG Documentos de Trabalho nº 177-2019.
Working Paper 176/2019: Ensaio sobre Política Externa Portuguesa
Abstract:
In general, Portuguese foreign policy is “consolidated” and has not undergone “sudden changes of direction”. According to the national government, the founding matrix remains “well present and consolidated” although “denser, richer, broader”. What exactly does this mean? Our strategic vectors of foreign policy used to be three (Europe, Atlantic and Lusophony). Since the 1990s, some authors have admitted adding a complementary strategic pillar to the previous model. Which one? Three hypotheses. First, security, focusing on the international missions of the Portuguese Armed Forces within the framework of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), the EU (European Union) or the UN (United Nations). Secondly, cooperation, mainly technical and cultural, with Portuguese-speaking countries, but also with third countries. Thirdly, economic diplomacy, with exports, the diversification of the investment portfolio, the opening of the internal market to the world (and not only to the EU). According to specialized literature, Portuguese foreign policy is consolidated and has not undergone major changes in the last four decades. Does this mean that its matrix, variables and strategic vectors have not changed in recent years? Has the geopolitical paradigm changed? Ensaio sobre Política Externa Portuguesa confronts the possibility of a change of course, with that of the creative reformulation of the original vision.
Quotation:
Galito, Maria Sousa (2019). “Ensaio sobre política externa portuguesa”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 176/2019.
Working Paper 175/2019: Sahel e Magreb: Ensaio sobre o Norte de África, uma região em convulsão
Abstract:
Sahel e Magreb : ensaio sobre o norte de África, uma região em convulsão focuses on the Sahel and on the Maghreb. The objective is to assess whether these regions are in crisis, with common problems affecting their countries; if there are specific characteristics limiting their development, and conflicts are justified by religious or economic issues, cultural patterns or local challenges. The study is macro. Debates the role of Fragile States with high violence, economic and social vulnerability, power struggles and fighting for natural resources. The paper is subdivided into two chapters. The first compares the Sahel and Maghreb regions, with a short analysis for each country that constitutes them, since the spaces are very related to each other, since traffickers transit along the trade routes of the ancient caravans of the desert caravans, or less watched over by law enforcement agents or controlled by guerrillas or or controlled by guerrilla or terrorist groups. Maps and statistical tables are offered for appropriate comparisons. The second chapter is about the influence of the Arab Spring in North Africa, with reference its main causes and consequences. Given that these states are considered fragile by the international community, the question is whether they are failures and why they have serious problems of governance, internal stability or the stability of their borders. It assesses the fight against terrorism, in a sensitive in a sensitive context where former guerrilla fighters are still active, part of militias or terrorist groups or claiming possession of natural resources, reclaiming for themselves the sources of income and the channels of distribution. sources of income and channels of distribution. Different types of violence or organised crime are also differentiated crimes.
Quotation:
Galito, Maria Sousa (2019). “Sahel e Magreb : ensaio sobre o norte de África, uma região em convulsão”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 175/2019.
Working Paper 174/2018: Global Partnerships to Local Challenges: The actor’s vision and the new educational horizons
Abstract:
The global partnerships for development are an important incentive to local growth as joint efforts are made to assist developing countries. In Global Partnerships to Local Challenges: The actor’s vision and the new educational horizons we emphasize actions in the field of education, as they constitute a catalyst for local development, with a special focus on HE since empirical evidence shows that this level of education represents an important factor in local, national and global economic progress. It is important to mention that this type of education plays a central role in an increasingly globalized and internationalized world where knowledge and innovation are part of the most developed and most competitive societies. In this sense, we have the objective of analysing the opinions given by the different Actors gathered through an inquiry, and confront them with the conceptual framework in order to see if their opinions meet the expected attitudes of the established partnerships. For this purpose, the CATWOE methodology is used to trace the route and to characterize the Conceptual Model in the scope of HE in order to perceive the transformations resulting from its actions and those that would be necessary to optimize the process.
Quotation:
Oliveira, Lúcia, Carlos Sangreman e Raquel Faria (2018). “Global partnerships to local challenges: the actor’s vision and the new educational horizons”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG Documentos de Trabalho nº 174/2018.
Working Paper 173/2018: Women in Politics: Portugal as a case study
Abstract:
Democracy is about the power of the people. In order to sustain, implies (at least) representativeness of its major groups. When majority rules minorities, lobbies complain when not happy and some of their demands are met; but the system doesn’t turn totally in their favor if it goes against the interests of a larger assembly. When minority rules the majority, problems arise (populism against elite, for instance); and sooner or later there’s a significant shift in society. Quantity gives power. Numbers do count in Democracy. Women are the majority of the population. It was not always so, but nowadays it’s an unquestionable fact. For cultural, institutional or socioeconomic reasons they were submissive for centuries to a system that did not recognize their public activity. They were not involved in decision making and rebel against that. At first, their demands were not met. But waves are changing. As long as democracy prevails and women’s numbers and percentages won’t drop, they’ll probably continue to raise awareness to their cause, increasing their power and influence in society. The evolution of women’s empowerment is the focus of Women in Politics: Portugal as a case study, that tries to analyze the main characteristics, causes and effects of this process, based on theory and world references or statistics. Portugal was chosen as a case study for not being much researched or not sufficiently so far.
Quotation:
Galito, Maria Sousa (2018). “Women in politics : Portugal as a case study”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 173/2018.
Working Paper 172/2018: Growth and Debt in Angola at Provincial Level
Abstract:
The relationship between growth and debt has attracted some research in past,(Eberhardt and Presbitero, 2015, Panizza and Presbitero, 2014, Kourtellos et al., 2013; Checherita-Westphal and Rother, 2012). This hypothesis has been tested for development countries and evidence from Africa countries restricted (Mistry, 1991; Ussain and Gunter, 2005; Mohamed, 2013; Owusu-Nantwi and Erickson, 2016). Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) find that growth rates fall in advanced and emerging market economies when the public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 90 percent and that high debt levels are correlated with higher inflation only in emerging markets. The Weak Government Hypothesis states that government fragmentation leads to higher public deficits and debt. This relation can be explained by government inaction, common pool problems or the strategic use of debt that arise in coalition governments (Ashworth, Geys and Heyndels, 2005). Therefore, this paper analyzes the relationship between debt and growth in Angola provinces from 2004-2015, using a spatial model. The spatial model is adequate in the present context as the focus are at regional level (Zhao, Tong and Qiao, 2002; chakravorty, 2003; Haddad, 2008; Barros, Faria and Araujo Jr., 2014) The SAC- Spatial autocorrelation model is adequate when the spatial autocorrelation is intense as it is in Angola context. The motivation for Growth and debt in Angola at provincial level is the following, first, growth at regional level is usually lower than at national level, revealing heterogeneity among Angola provinces that justifies the investigation between growth and debt. Second, regional public expenditure is taken into account since it is a component of the growth and debt. Third, regional public debt is not published in Angola and the access to it needs a ministry of finance accordance. This restricted access signifies that it is a political issue and therefore it may hide some political issues. Therefore, the use of it in and growth debt paper is curious. Additional, the Angola regional provinces are managed by MPLA- Movimento popular de Libertação de Angola members, the incumbent government, signifying that there is a centrality of power that increases the regional spatial correlation. This paper analyses GDP growth and public debt at the provincial level in Angola from 2004-2015, using a spatial model. First a SAC -Spatial autocorrelation model panel is estimated. Later, a robust test is adopted estimating the Hans-Philips linear spatial dynamic model. Finally, a spatial 3sls model is estimated taking into account the possibility endogeneity of regional spatial autocorrelation. The three models give similar results revealing that in Angola public expenditure increase GDP growth but debt decrease it.
Quotation:
Reis, César Fernando e Jelson Serafim (2018). “Growth and debt in Angola at provincial level”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA/ CSG –Documentos de Trabalho nº 172/2018.
Working Paper 171/2018: Promoting Private Sector for Development: The rise of blended finance in EU aid architecture
Abstract:
Since 2007, the EU has been pushing for blended finance to mobilise private sector for development. This is a novel and controversial financial policy coinciding with the growing debate on “beyond aid” and the emergence of new financial tools and actors that are actively engaged with the global development agenda. Since the 1960s, grants and concessional loans (or more simply, aid) have been the dominant type of development finance provided by the EU, together with debt relief and the costs of technical assistance. But aid is no longer the main source of development finance for most developing countries, now replaced by private financial flows: foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances and philanthropy. Business-led economic growth is at the core of the 2030 global development agenda seen as the primary driver of investments, jobs creation and production of goods and services. In consequence, the EU is moving to combine aid with other public and private resources (blended finance) to catalyse and leverage additional funds from the private sector. Promoting private sector for development: the rise of blended finance in EU aid architecture will critically analyse the emergence and evolution of EU blended finance to support the private sector to deliver the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) by 2030 and the potential implications for EU development cooperation.
Quotation:
Mah, Luís (2018). “Promoting private sector for development : the rise of blended finance in EU aid architecture”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA /CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 171/2018.
Working Paper 170/2018: The Brazilian Economy in an Accommodative Perspective: An essay on the deepening of dependency
Abstract:
This article, eminently analytical, refers to the brazilian economy in an accommodative perspective. This refers to the internal mechanism of interactionadaptive to the instigations of the dynamics of the international division of labor and its modus operandi. It emerges that the central problem of the Brazilian economy is to maintain a pattern of reproduction of material life that guarantees the non-rupture of the fabric on which the conditions of accumulation have settled. This document aims to propose a way of analyzing the Brazilian economy and its relationship with the recent dynamic of the global economy. In order to do so, one takes into account its dependence trajectory with this dynamics and proposes to analyze it in a perspective of non-structural alteration of the components that support it and, as a hypothesis, of the way these components interact. The components, for the purposes of this essay, are: exports and imports of goods (here called the Decisive Activity), reproduction of the labor force (here considered, as a proxy, for the joint analysis of the unemployment rate and average real income in minimum wages) and the investment rate (as a percentage of GDP).
Quotation:
Moreira, Marcelo José (2018). “The Brazilian Economy in an Accommodative Perspective: An essay on the deepening of dependency”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA /CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 170/2018.
