CEsA Working Paper investigates the complex relationship between forced displacement and human development
The research concludes that the most urgent factors driving forced migration are political violence, particularly civil conflicts, and climate change—both exacerbated by economic crises, food insecurity, and infrastructure damage.
How has refugee outflow evolved internationally? What are the root causes of forced displacement, and what characteristics do refugee-sending countries share? Is there a relationship between forced migration and human development? These are the key research questions explored by authors Marcela Rocha, Master in Development and International Cooperation (ISEG – Universidade de Lisboa), and Professor Eduardo Moraes Sarmento, PhD in Economics with a specialization in Tourism, in CEsA Working Paper No. 121/2025, titled A Glance at International Challenges of Refugee Crises in the New Millennium.
This paper is innovative in bridging refugee studies and development studies to investigate the relationship between forced displacement, its root causes, and human development. Using a qualitative case study methodology, the authors examined refugee outflows from the main origin countries—namely Afghanistan, South Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, and Venezuela (according to UNHCR)—to understand the drivers of these movements and their impact on development.
Working Paper No. 121/2025 can be downloaded from the CEsA collection, available in the Universidade de Lisboa Repository: https://repositorio.ulisboa.pt/handle/10400.5/97910
Abstract:
This study investigates the intricate relationship between forced displacement and human development. By examining refugee outflows from key regions, this paper seeks to comprehend the factors driving these movements and their development implications. Employing a qualitative case study methodology, the research focuses on the five main refugee outflow countries in 2023. The paper finds that the most relevant factors that induce displacement are political violence, especially civil conflict, and climate change. Refugee emergencies have multiple aggravating elements, like economic crises, food insecurity, and infrastructure damage. Despite not identifying strong correlations between displacement and human development (measured through HDI), except for Syria, the study reveals that these emergencies are simultaneously humanitarian and developmental challenges. Repercussions are more prominent in the Global South since it is the origin and the destination of over 70% of displaced people. The findings reiterate the urgency for integrated policy responses that combine development and humanitarian efforts.
About the Authors
Marcela Rocha holds a Master’s degree in Development and International Cooperation (ISEG – University of Lisbon).
Eduardo Moraes Sarmento holds a PhD in Economics with a specialization in Tourism. He is the coordinator of the Master’s in Development and International Cooperation at ISEG (University of Lisbon), a researcher, president of CEsA, and a member of the Scientific Committee of ISEG Research.
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Author: CEsA Communication Team (comunicacao@cesa.iseg.ulisboa.pt)
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