Working Papers
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Working Paper 139/2016: The paradigm of the investment development path: does it holds for Portugal? Evidence for the period 1990-2011
Abstract:
The main goal of The paradigm of the investment development path: does it holds for Portugal? Evidence for the period 1990-2011 is to discuss the validity of the Investment Development Path Hypothesis for Portugal, with reference to the historical period 1960-2011. Looking at the transformations that took place in the world economy in the last quarter of the 20th century, as a result of liberalization, deregulation and market opening process, one of the most striking features was the emergence of multinational enterprises in all sectors and countries of the world. Consequently, the Foreign Direct Investment flows promoted by these firms have grown significantly, even faster than world trade and world output, in the same period. According to the Investment Development Path (IDP) theory there is a dynamic and intertemporal relationship between an economy’s level of development and the country’s inward and outward investment position. In this paper we estimate this hypothesis for Portugal and other 28 countries in different stages of development, for the period 1990-2011 at an aggregate level. We use fixed- effects panel data models and generally our research´s results provide support to the IDP theoretical paradigm, although we couldn’t capture all the stages predicted, given the lack of heterogeneity between the most countries of our sample and also the relatively short time period considered.
Quotation:
Fonseca, Miguel, António Mendonça e José Passos. 2016. “The paradigm of the investment development path: does it holds for Portugal? Evidence for the period 1990-2011”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG Documentos de Trabalho nº 139/2016.
Working Paper 138/2016: Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path: evidence from portuguese economy, 1996-2011
Abstract:
In the last two decades the internationalisation of the Portuguese economy increased, particularly through outward FDI on the Portuguese-speaking countries. Different studies in economic literature conclude for the existence of a complementary relationship between foreign production and trade in traditional outward investing economies, contributing to the long term sustainable path of the country’s trade balance. In our paper we discuss if this hypothesis holds for a new outward investor like Portugal, with reference to the period 1996-2011. We use a panel data analysis within a framework of gravity models for exports and imports, with a sample composed by EU-15, U.S.A., Brazil, Angola, Spain, Japan and China. Our main conclusion is that the Portuguese outward FDI seems to be negatively related to exports, suggesting a substitution effect, and thus a negative trade balance effect, for the majority of countries in our sample. The exception to this tendency seems to be Spain, confirming and reinforcing a former study for the period 1996-2007. Angola also reveals a positive effect on exports but, in this case, the effect on imports outweighs that on exports, contradicting the results obtained in that same former study. The results we achieved in Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996-2011 suggest that the expected positive impact on home country´s trade of the increased internationalisation of the Portuguese economy as an exporter of capital, on the last fifteen years, is not evident and continue to be not predicable with certainty relying on empirical evidence.
Quotation:
Fonseca, Miguel, António Mendonça e José Passos (2016). “Outward FDI and sustainable trade balance path : evidence from portuguese economy, 1996-2011”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 138/2016
Working Paper 137/2015: A justiça num estado frágil: o exemplo da Guiné-Bissau
Abstract:
The study A Justiça num Estado frágil: o exemplo da Guiné-Bissau leaned on the variables that define the quality of justice with application in Guinea-Bissau consultation with authors to discuss the topic in magazines and international organizations, as well as some projects on the topic in Canada, USA and the Netherlands. It was conducted with interviews, analysis of processes and legal documents, previous studies and internal documents and detailed that the quality of justice can be considered weak and that the causes of this weakness and recommendations to improve have to focus on a whole range variables. If it is correct to consider that the poor physical conditions of work (buildings, equipment, technology, energy, consumables and security) are a very clear basis for this low level of quality, also we are sure that these causes are far from to be the only ones. The set of causalities requires action by all stakeholders from the magistrates to court officials, lawyers and the Ministry of Justice itself are manifold as illustrated in the text. If the reform is urgent the perception we have is that the understanding between the parties remains difficult and we believe that even the measures proposed here, simpler and less numerous than the Reform Plan of Justice, could be the set of priorities, requiring a great motivation, skill and good sense to all parties, would create consensus for a comprehensive reform that fulfills the evidence of the country have a higher quality of justice in accordance with the objectives that any legitimate government wants to provide its population.
Quotation:
Santos, António Furtado dos, Carlos Sangreman e Luís Vaz Martins (2015) . “A justiça num estado frágil : o exemplo da Guiné-Bissau”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 137/2015
Working Paper 136/2015: An analysis of Mozambique’s political and economic networks
Abstract:
An analysis of Mozambique’s political and economic networks analyses the social networks existing among politicians and economists in contemporary Mozambique, using the SNA-Social Networks Analysis method to identify the links between these individuals, to discern their relationships and to measure both the density and the centrality of the political-business network. Mozambique’s political and business elite is thus identified. A network sociogram is presented identifying the individual position in the network and the linkages among these individuals and several positional metrics of the individuals in the network are estimated, allowing identifying each individual and its influence in the network. As this network is resource accumulation driven, this exercise permits to identify the main political and economic individual active in Mozambique economy. President Guebuza define the major network centre and other individuals, Joaquim Chissano, the former president, and Graça Machel, the widow of another former president. Policy implications are derived and the links between them displayed, allowing for an accurate view of Mozambique’s political and business world. The motivation for the present research is as follows: firstly, although there is some research in Mozambique, the relationship between political power and economic power is similar to those found in other contemporary countries, and therefore it is interesting to discover who the prominent individuals are and what role they play in the network; secondly, although there has been some research conducted into Mozambican politics and business, the SNA methodology has so far not been used to describe Mozambique. Finally, the paper also seeks to measure both the centrality and the density of this network.
Quotation:
Chivangue, Andes e Edson Cortez (2015). “An analysis of Mozambique’s political and economic networks”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 136/2015.
Working Paper 135/2015: Crony capitalism in Mozambique: evidence from networks of politicians and businessmen
Abstract:
Crony capitalism in Mozambique: evidence from networks of politicians and businessmen discusses crony capitalism in Mozambique, analysing the existing social networks between political and economic actors, using the SNA – Social Networks Analysis method. Variables are selected to identify cliques and covariates that explain this network relationship are taken into account, namely, military, ethnicity, family, politics, business, entrepreneurship, political party and gender. The policy implications are derived. Crony capitalism is a concept often used to analyse the Asian political economy. Recently it has been used to describe entrepreneurship in Africa. This paper tests some of the variables associated with this phenomenon in Mozambique, using SNA – Social Network Analysis (Prell 2012) and regressing the formation of ties within the network against variables that can lead to crony situations, identifying those that explain tie formation. This research is based on the fact that in African countries, wealth accumulation is still in its early stages, and power is based on political relationships. This paper tests some of the variables associated with this phenomenon in Mozambique, using SNA – Social Network Analysis (Prell 2012) and regressing the formation of ties within the network against variables that may lead to timing situations, identifying those that explain the formation of ties. This research is based on the fact that, in African countries, wealth accumulation is still in its early stages, and power is based on political relationships.
Quotation:
Chivangue, Andes (2015). “Crony capitalism in Mozambique: evidence from networks of politicians and businessmen”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG – Documentos de Trabalho nº 135/2015.
Working Paper 131/2014: Building a Korean-Portuguese business partnership for sub-saharan Africa: opportunities and challenges in Mozambique
Abstract:
Africa continues to show high economic growth and market potential in terms of access to natural resources and new consumers, Korea needs to start thinking about strengthening its engagement with Africa. Unlike the case of Korea, Portugal has been a strong trade partner of Africa, particularly through its investments in two of the fastest growing economies in the continent, Angola and Mozambique. Historical, political, economic, educational, and cultural ties as well as language have played a crucial role in nurturing the trade relations. The current economic and financial crisis in the European Union is pushing Portuguese companies to strengthen their presence in booming Portuguese- speaking (lusophone) African countries. Due to Korea’s weak links and connections with the continent, Building a Korean-Portuguese business partnership for sub-saharan Africa : opportunities and challenges in mozambique will attempt to critically analyse the opportunities and challenges for Korean businesses in building partnerships with Portuguese companies to enhance their entry into African markets that are growing fastly. The paper will focus on Mozambique as a case study.
Quotation:
Mah, Luís (2014). “Building a Korean-Portuguese business partnership for sub-saharan Africa : opportunities and challenges in mozambique”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA Documentos de Trabalho nº 131-2014
Working Paper 15/2016/DE/UECE/CEsA: Global value chains assessment in the 2000s: an approach with income transfers
Abstract:
In Global value chains assessment in the 2000s: an approach with income transfers, we make use of recent data published by the World Input-Output Database to (i) measure the degree of total and net “transferred” gains of major Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-member countries and emerging economies by being part of a Global Value Chain (GVC) with two incomerelated indicators built for this purpose and (ii) capture whether the bilateral degree of GVC insertion of this group of countries, measured with the proposed indicators, contributes to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in the 2000s. The pooled regression model estimated shows that bilateral FDI inflows, controlling for other possible FDI determinants, are positively associated to the total “transferred” income generated by GVC-induced bilateral trade of inputs, taken as a proxy to the degree of GVC-embeddedness of those countries, while correlation with GVC-associated net gains was not confirmed. The regression also shows the negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-9 and the significant role played by the People’s Republic of China on FDI inflows.
Quotation:
Martínez-Galán, Enrique e Maria Paula Fontoura .2016.“Global value chains assessment in the 2000s: an approach with income transfers”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE Working papers nº 15-2016/DE/UECE/CEsA.
Working Paper 5/2010/DE/UECE/CESA: Capital structure, risk and asymmetric information: theory and evidence
Abstract:
Capital structure, risk and asymmetric information: theory and evidence proposes a principal-agent model between banks and firms with risk and asymmetric information. A mixed form of financing to firms is assumed. The capital structure of firms is a relevant cause for the final aggregate level of investment in the economy. In the analysed model, there may be a separation equilibrium, which is not economically efficient as aggregate investments fall short of the first-best level. Based on data at the level of European firms, an empirical model is presented that validates the result of the relevance of firms’ capital structure. The relative magnitude of equity in capital structure makes a real difference to the profits earned by firms in the economy. In both theoretical and empirical analyses, many scholars have addressed the reflections on the capital structure mix that could explain healthy functioning of firms in free market economies. In the current climate of global economic crisis, interest in this issue has again assumed vital relevance.
Quotation:
Ibrahimo, M.V. e Carlos Pestana Barros (2010). “Capital structure, risk and asymmetric information: theory and evidence”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – DE Working papers nº 05/2010/DE/UECE/CESA (Centro de Estudos sobre África e Desenvolvimento
Working Paper 8/DE/CEsA/2004: Desenvolvimento económico e mudança institucional: o papel do Estado
Abstract:
A new Development Economics is being built, combining the return to the heritage of the “old” Structuralism with contributions brought by the renewal of the Institutionalism. Desenvolvimento económico e mudança institucional: o papel do Estado begins with a balance of the first development economists’ contributions and insufficiencies and of the neoclassical approach of the 1980’s (first section), subsequently introducing some essential aspects of institutionalist contributions, including how the neo-institutionalist Douglass North puts the problem of institutional change and, as a result, contributes to the return of a perspective of change in the study of economic development (second section). In the third section we return to the problem of structural change, following the discussion about the developmental state that a new generation of development economists has been holding since the late 1980’s, so that we can observe how the set of inter-relations between state, market and politics is being established, towards an interpretation of economic development that we could call institutionalist structuralism. This paper makes a very brief presentation of aspects of a reflection that I have been developing on the evolution of development economics, with the main objective of understanding the essential characteristics of the renewal that a new generation of development economists has been carrying out since the late 1980s. Since then, a relative rapprochement between theoretical developments that recovered essential aspects of the “old” structuralism tradition and developments that took up the tradition found in the writings of the “old” institutionalism became noticeable. The important question is to understand how the new institutionalist research programme helps to improve the understanding of structural change and thus of the development process as a whole.
Quotation:
Estevão, João (2004). “Desenvolvimento económico e mudança institucional: o papel do Estado”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – DE Working papers nº 08/2004/DE/CEsA.
Working Paper 134/2015: Emigração e os pequenos estados insulares em vias de desenvolvimento: os casos de Cabo Verde e S. Tomé e Príncipe
Abstract:
Workers’ remittances and official development assistance are two types of flows that combine and are increasingly present in the day by day of most small island states, especially those that do not have a valuable natural resource. Another important flow is the foreign direct investment. These flows are vital to the development of developing countries in general and particularly of Small Island States (SIS), but do not have in all the same importance. Remittances of emigrants are very significant in Haiti, Lesotho, Cape Verde and Benin while in S. Tome and Principe, for example, it is the FDI that has been crucial. Differently from other external development flows, remittances from migrants reveal greater stability and predictability and are channeled directly to the families, that affect them primarily in their most immediate needs of consumer goods and services contributing thus to reduce poverty in the country of origin of migrants. The arguments for and against the remittances and the discussion of the effects of remittances on economic growth have contributed to stress the importance of remittances in small developing countries. But in certain SIDS, a significant proportion of migrants in the total population have produced remittances relatively small or negligible, so there seems to be here cultural reasons, in addition to economic one, influencing minor sending remittances, as in the case of São Tomé and Principe. Emigração e os pequenos estados insulares em vias de desenvolvimento : os casos de Cabo Verde e S. Tomé e Príncipe shows that the economy of Cape Verde is dependent on migrant remittances for its development while the economy of S. Tome and Principe is dependent on the FDI. As remittances are vital to SIDS, it is essential they adopt strategies to attract more remittances to their economy.
Quotation:
Santo, Armindo do Espírito (2015) . “Emigração e os pequenos estados insulares em vias de desenvolvimento : os casos de Cabo Verde e S. Tomé e Príncipe”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA / CSG Documentos de Trabalho nº 134/2015.
