Development Economics and Policy
The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Bank Stress Tests on Stock Markets
Abstract:
In The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Banks Stress Tests on Stock Markets we tested whether the 2010, 2011 and 2014 European Union bank stress tests produced useful and real information to the market. Using an augmented capital asset pricing model, we analyzed the impact of the information disclosures on each stress test (announcement, methodology and results events) on the stock market returns and risk of banks. Our approach allows an integrated analysis, as a sample of 41 banks that participated in all three stress tests was used. The most significant event was the methodology disclosure, in terms of its impact on risk and returns. In contrast, the results events did not have much impact in the stock market when considering the entire sample of banks. On the other hand, after dividing the sample of banks into two groups (those that passed the 2014 European Union stress test vs. those that failed), we observed a significant reaction of the stock markets in both groups. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that stress tests provide real and valuable information to the markets about the banking system. A significant part of that information is conveyed by announcement and methodology events
Quotation:
“Borges, M. R., Mendes, J. Z. and Pereira, A. (2019). “The Value of Information: The Impact of European Union Banks Stress Tests on Stock Markets”. International Advances in Economic Research, 25, 429-444. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-019-09760-5“
Cultural and creative entrepreneurs in financial crises: Sailing against the tide?
Abstract:
Cultural and creative entrepreneurs in financial crises: Sailing against the tide? Scientific Annals of Economics and Business focuses on a range of idiosyncrasies of cultural and creative entrepreneurs (CCEs) to study the resilience of CCEs in times of crisis (economic, financial and debt crisis). The demographics of CC firms (born and dead), trends and performance and the association between subsidies received and firm survival are analysed. It mainly analyses micro firms in a country where CCEs are particularly financially challenged, namely Portugal. It exploits the unique availability of micro accounting data at the private firm level over an 8-year period (2004-2011), which allows to include the effects of the last financial crisis, and to understand the evolution of the economic success criterion. The results obtained on the impact of subsidies on survival are interesting in both the CCE and the political perspectives, suggesting a positive impact of subsidies in periods of recession, and a negative impact of subsidies in periods of economic growth. Furthermore, CCE firms were found to be more dynamic than other firms in other sectors.
Quotation:
Fontainha, E., & Lazzaro, E. (2019). Cultural and creative entrepreneurs in financial crises: Sailing against the tide?. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(Special issue – dedicated to the VIII Wo), 73–89. https://doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2019-0022
Perspective piece on “Transfers in an Aging European Union” by Fanny A. Kluge, Joshua R. Goldstein and Tobias C. Vogt
Abstract:
The growth in the longevity of Europe’s population is a consequence of developments in various fields, including medicine, nutrition and welfare policies, and reflects overall progress in well-being, human development and quality of life. However, as the continued improvement in life expectancy has been accompanied by a decline in fertility rates, which migration is not sufficient to compensate for, it has resulted in a growing ageing population, which raises critical societal challenges. Several articles presented in this journal explore the short and long-term effects of population ageing in the EU and in each of its member countries. The article written by Fanny Kluge, Joshua Goldstein and Tobias Vogt, Transfers in an ageing European Union, (hereafter “KGV”) contributes to understanding the effects of population ageing on the fiscal budgets of EU-28 countries and “its implications for potential transfer flows between EU countries”. The results of “KGV” open several avenues for further research. Elsa Fontainha comments on the work of Fanny A. Kluge, Joshua R. Goldstein and Tobias C. Vogt on population transfers in the European Union.
Quotation:
Fontainha, E. (2019). Perspective piece on “Transfers in an Ageing European Union” by Fanny A. Kluge, Joshua R. Goldstein and Tobias C. Vogt. Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 13, 55-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.10.006
A Caminho de uma Recaída da Economia Mundial? Ainda Algumas Notas sobre a Natureza da Crise Económica e Financeira de 2008-2009 e os seus Impactos na Economia Europeia
Abstract:
Based on the analysis of the latest data on the evolution of the world economy, the reasons that may underlie the persistence of the difficulties in recovering, in a sustained manner, the rates of growth, particularly in the euro zone, more than a decade after the outbreak of the crisis of 2008-2009, are discussed. The nature of this global economic crisis is discussed in A caminho de uma recaída da economia mundial? : Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza mundial? : Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza da crise económica e financeira de 2008-2009 e os seus impactos na economia europeia, its impacts at the European regional level, the emergence of what has been called an identity crisis of the European integration project, the inefficiency of the euro system as an adjustment mechanism, internal and external, and the role of unconventional monetary policy. The conclusion is that Europe needs to undertake a profound redefinition of its integration project, including the redesign of the euro system in light of the recent experience of unconventional monetary policy. In this process, it is considered that there is an important place for Portugal, as an Atlantic European country, whose identity was formed and consolidated in the process of constitution of the global economy.
Quotation:
Mendonça, António .2019. A caminho de uma recaída da economia mundial?: Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza mundial?: Ainda algumas notas sobre a natureza da crise económica e financeira de 2008-2009 e os seus impactos na economia europeia”, Lusíada – Economia & Empresa, nº 26, p. 31-66
Guiné-Bissau – Notas sobre o presente e o futuro
Abstract:
The idea of publishing the book Notas sobre o presente e o futuro of Guinea-Bissau arose from the need to get to know the country better and to think about its recent past, which will inevitably contribute to its near future. The aim was to collect existing texts that were revised and updated and to ask some authors to reflect on themes based on the motto “Guinea-Bissau, notes on the present and the future”. These texts are published at a special moment in the country. After a period of a government appointed by the military that took power in 2012, elections were held in 2014 and a round table was held in Brussels where the country received a great deal of encouragement from its international partners – institutions and countries – in support of a government and a president that everyone had hoped would provide a more stable and successful evolution such as there had not been until then. But these expectations came up against a conflict between sovereign bodies, which frustrated this support and threw the country into a four-year period of instability that began to end with the legislative elections on 10 March 2019 but is only expected to return to normal institutional functioning with the presidential elections in November of the same year.
Quotation:
Sangreman, Carlos, Fátima Proença, Luís Vaz Martins, Mamadu Alfa Djau, Pedro Rosa Mendes e Rui Jorge Semedo Guiné-Bissau – Notas sobre o presente e o futuro, com, ISBN 978-989-20-9932-3, CESA-ISEG/ULisboa, 2019, Lisboa.
The Causality between Energy Consumption, Urban Population, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth.
Abstract:
This article assesses the relationship between electricity consumption and urbanisation by comparing the econometric results of distributed autoregressive lag (ARDL) and vector autoregressive lag (VAR) for the period 1960-2015. Granger causality is also applied to the Portuguese economy. In this study, we use some hypotheses that describe the link between electricity consumption, urban population, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth. The motivation of this research focuses on the relationship between electricity consumption (energy consumption) and urban population, supported by the theoretical and empirical contributions of energy and urban economics. The empirical results show that electricity consumption exhibits causality with economic growth, urban population, carbon dioxide emissions, and international trade. This research also proves that there is cointegration among all variables in the long run. Authored by Nuno Carlos Leitão e Daniel Balslobre-Lorente, this chapter (nº5) is part of the book “Econometrics of Green Energy Handbook”, which shares essential insights into the dynamic between energy innovations, environmental guidelines, and economic development, demonstrates how globalization has led to the development of greener energy technologies, paints a global picture using case studies on energy innovation in numerous countries and discusses both technological and policy aspects of green energy development.
Quotation:
Leitão, N.C. & Lorente, D. B. (2020): The Causality between Energy Consumption, Urban Population, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth. Springer Handbook Green Energy Series: Econometry of Green Energy- Economy and Technological and Development. Publisher: Springer.
The Cluster as a Theoretical and Practical Tool for Portuguese International Cooperation for Development: The cases of Mozambique and Angola
Abstract:
The Cluster as a theoretical and practical tool for Portuguese International Cooperation for Development: the cases of Mozambique and Angola seeks to provide a contribution towards knowledge of the theory and practical effects of the new instrument in the hands of Portu¬guese cooperation for development – clusters in cooperation – both in re¬gard to the countries receiving international aid and in terms of the effect that its creation and implementation may have, through what we can call the “boomerang effect”, on the reform of public and private cooperation institutions in Portugal, above all at the Instituto de Apoio ao Desenvol¬vimento (the Development Support Institute – IPAD). As for the theoretical side, we maintain that it is only the connection of this concept to benchmarking, as it is taken to mean in the reform of public administration currently underway, that will turn it into a real poli¬cy measure, as opposed to virtual measures that are announced and never put into practice. Then it can provide an innovative contribution to the re¬form of public institutions and the non state actors who make up the field for Portuguese cooperation, which operates within the current framework of international consensus about the area, and the public administration reform policy of the current government. In terms of practical operations, we maintain that that this should be achieved by a flexible model that is perfectly feasible and not in any way Utopian. With this model, cooperation programmes can be developed which are the tailor made for the priorities in each country. This can be carried out by using the methodology of partnership and the evaluation of those results that give the best quality and are the most participative possible in all the phases of identification, conception, implementation and evaluation. This means keeping in mind the Portuguese political op¬tions and those of the partner countries, as well as the coherence, consis¬tency and institutional capacity of both sides. Experiences are needed of other countries that finance cooperation, and reference must be made to the most advanced cluster in Portugal – the project for the Island of Mozambique – as well as putting forward proposals for making the clusters operational. These can form a template of what Portugal can set out for the countries with which it is coopera¬ting, and can then also be extended to what we think could be the trans¬formations in Portuguese institutions of the “field” in the light of the ideas expressed here.
Quotation:
Sangreman, C., coord. (2017). The Cluster as a theoretical and practical tool for Portuguese International Cooperation for Development: the cases of Mozambique and Angola. Lisboa: ISEG – CEsA & CEI-ISCTE/IUL.
Dialética do Acomodatismo Brasileiro
Abstract:
The capitalist world-economy is immersed in a generalised inertia. A movement of slow accumulation, low investment, limited growth rates, which comes about through intense pressure on the levels of inequalities historically existing. Brazil is not alien to the tensions of this movement. Dialética do acomodatismo Brasileiro presents the elements that characterize what we call the structure of Brazilian accommodation. The research showed that the recent accommodation of the Brazilian economy was expressed in the relative loss of its productive capacity, in the performance of the volume of imports and in the deterioration of its labour market. The Brazilian economic dynamics of income and wealth concentrating development was covered by: 1. a trajectory of industrial activities, without setting up an industrialisation process as such; 2. a continuous advance of agro-economic activities in a process of primarisation of the export roster which expands and asserts itself as a kind of perpetual mode; and 3. a labour market structured towards precarious conditions and labour relations and the reproduction of inequalities. From the accommodationist perspective presented here, the IA-Br showed that the recent accommodation of the Brazilian economy was due to a significant performance of the external sector, to the relative but not significant loss of its productive capacity and to the upsurge of its labour market, which, added to the recent political-institutional alterations, characterise the Brazilian Accommodation Structure.
Quotation:
Moreira, Marcelo José (2021). “Dialética do acomodatismo Brasileiro”. Comunicação apresentada no VIII Congresso de Ensino, Pesquisa e Extensão da Universidade Estadual de Goiás (Cepe|UEG), Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Anápolis
A dialética da primazia pela acomodação brasileira, a economia-mundo capitalista e o choque do novo coronavírus
A dialética da primazia pela acomodação brasileira, a economia-mundo capitalista e o choque do novo coronavírus by Marcelo José Moreira seeks to insert a conceptual proposal which, although initial and immersed in a reflection of an eminently analytical nature, suggests a way of abstracting how Brazilian underdevelopment-dependency is structured in the present-time, from an accommodationist perspective.
Abstract:
The capitalist world-economy is immersed in a generalized inertia. A movement of slow accumulation, low investment, limited growth rates, but with a high level of profit, and which is given by intense pressure on the levels of existing inequalities, combining a worldwide restructuring of wealth and income generation with a workforce pattern of reproduction to the level of its limited maintenance. Inertia that is verified, mainly, from the financial-productive crisis of the first decade of the 2000s. Brazil is not oblivious to this inertia and its consequences. This essay aims, from a conceptual reflection at first, to discuss, secondly, elements that characterize what we call the structure of Brazilian Accommodation.
Quotation:
Moreira, Marcelo José (2021). “A dialética da primazia pela acomodação brasileira, a economia-mundo capitalista e o choque do novo coronavírus”. Comunicação apresentada no 15º Colóquio Brasileiro em Economia Política dos Sistemas-Mundo: Pandemia e tendências seculares da economia-mundo capitalista , Florianópolis, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Brief Paper 1/2015: O Acesso à Água e ao Saneamento nos Países em Desenvolvimento: a União Europeia, as ONGDs e o caso de Bafatá na Guiné-Bissau
Abstract:
O acesso à água e ao saneamento nos países em desenvolvimento : a União Europeia, as ONGDs e o caso de Bafatá na Guiné-Bissau is born from the readaptation of the master’s thesis “Access to water and sanitation in developing countries: the European Union, NGDOs and the case of Bafatá in Guinea Bissau” carried out during 2014 and defended in November of the same year. The work is part of the theme of international cooperation with Developing Countries (DP) in the sector of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)3 and aims to investigate how good practices, agreed by international donors, for access to water and sanitation, influence the work of NGDOs operating in this sector. Thus, we sought to analyze how the European Union (EU), the most important donor in the WASH sector at an international level, has influenced the work in the WASH sector of the Portuguese NGDO – TESE – Associação para o Desenvolvimento. We tried to observe how TESE interprets the EU guidelines in the WASH sector, trying to understand if there is a blind adaptation to the guidelines in order to capture the funds, or if, on the contrary, there is a vision that guides the actions of TESE independently the availability of funding. In the first decade of the 2000s, the EU has strengthened its commitment to the WASH sector, funding numerous cooperation projects and actively contributing to the international political debate. Among the criteria that led to the choice of TESE, in addition to its geographical proximity and the opportunity to collaborate with the organization’s members, is the fact that it is one of the few NGDOs in Portugal committed to cooperation in the WASH sector in the Portuguese-speaking space. This, over the last decade, has established itself as a reference organization in the panorama of Portuguese NGDOs, being involved in several projects in the water and sanitation sector. Since its birth until today, there has been a substantial evolution of the organization, which now has a stable structure and well-defined objectives. Over time, TESE defined an intervention model specific to the organization. Among the projects carried out, one stands out, Bafatá Misti Iagu (BMI), co-financed by the EU in Bafatá, Guinea Bissau (GB). This will be the object of analysis as a case study. Between February and May 2014, the daily work of the TESE headquarters in Lisbon was monitored. Documents guiding EU cooperation and funding lines in the WASH sector were analyzed and compared with the results of the case study on Bafatá, writing the intervention context of the BMI project. from the analysis of documents of the projects carried out by TESE, from the evaluations of the projects and from the interviews carried out with current and previous members of the NGDO5. The comparison was mainly focused on: (1) the desired objectives, the target groups, the proposed actions and the approach promoted in the actions; (2) the approach to the key issues of access and management of water services. Here, we sought to compare the principles inherent to institutional and management issues (What is the resource management model that is promoted?), social and economic (What is the value attributed to water, in equity, in human rights, in gender equity? , in the quality of services promoted, and in questions of ownership, price, pricing of services?), and finally environmental, information, education, communication and technology6. This analysis resulted in a substantial approximation between the EU guidelines and the projects carried out by TESE. This result becomes more interesting considering that the line of financing with which TESE financed the BMI project in 2009 did not include specific guidelines on the water sector and the definition of objectives, expected results, activities and more in general. approach and is not subject to EC eligibility criteria in the WASH sector. Regarding the desired objectives, target groups, proposed actions and the approach promoted in the actions, there is a high correspondence of vision. TESE’s actions encompass both an infrastructural component (construction and rehabilitation of infrastructure, implementation of pollution prevention and water protection measures), and measures aimed at improving resource management in order to guarantee the durability of the intervention (awareness of the correct use of resources and education for hygiene, strengthening and management of institutions in the water sector). Among the measures shared by the EU and TESE aimed at resource management is the demand management, which, however, was not applied indiscriminately in the projects carried out by TESE, and each time there was a prior identification of the context and the your needs. The affinity of vision between EC and TESE remains constant, albeit with some difference, looking at the key access and management principles applied in the implementation of the BMI project (See Table A). This did not come about through the opening of a line of financing, but through the identification of the needs and opportunities for cooperation in Bafatá, in a perspective of complementarity and integration with other ongoing initiatives. The expected results were not defined to meet the eligibility conditions of the Call for Proposal -CfP-, but to have the best impact from the point of view of economic, human and environmental sustainability. The definition of these results derives from TESE’s own intervention pattern, which may change according to the context and requirements of the financing lines, but which in substance is not changed. Through the analysis of the projects carried out by TESE, it was possible to identify an intervention model of the organization. This model, the common thread between the projects, is an integral part of its cooperation strategy. Taking into account what has been observed, it can be said that TESE has a vision that guides its actions in the WASH sector, not limiting itself to applying ipsis verbis what is required in the EC CfPs. However, as we have seen, there is a good match between the objectives and good practices approved by the EC and the vision and work of TESE. Comparing the objectives, principles and proposed actions, it can be deduced that, taking as an example the application of the demand management principle, there is no implementation of internationally recognized good practices without a prior analysis of the intervention context.
Quotation:
Gentili, Davide (2015). “O acesso à água e ao saneamento nos países em desenvolvimento : a União Europeia, as ONGDs e o caso de Bafatá na Guiné-Bissau”. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – CEsA Brief papers nº 1-2015.
